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How many copies did Talk to Saki sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 213–346
$117–$313 after Steam's cut $212–$482 before Steam's cut
from 7 reviews (7 user reviews)
Only 7 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Talk to Saki and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Talk to Saki's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 91k–105k
best case 668k (Her Story)
Games like Talk to Saki

A typical game among these

≈ 91k–105k copies

≈ $409k–$512k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Her Story at ≈ 509k–827k copies, ≈ $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 247 reviews in their first month; the range was 31 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Typing (6 of 8) and Visual Novel (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choose Your Own Adventure, priced around $12. The breakout hits carry Choose Your Own Adventure + Exploration + Detective; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.