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How many copies did Hero of the Kingdom III sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 48k–77k
$131k–$352k after Steam's cut $238k–$541k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hero of the Kingdom III and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hero of the Kingdom III's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.0M–5.2M
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like Hero of the Kingdom III

A typical game among these

≈ 3.0M–5.2M copies

≈ $26.5M–$62.7M after Steam's cut

from ~94k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 49k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 86k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Hack and Slash (6 of 8) and Action RPG (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Strategy, priced around $45.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Diablo® IV
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$26.8M–$72.1M after Steam's cut $48.8M–$111.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
79k reviews
Mixed
Action RPGHack and Slash
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
206k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tactical RPGRPG
Bastion
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackIndie
Last Epoch
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$28.3M–$76.0M after Steam's cut $51.4M–$116.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
118k reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RPGLoot
Torchlight II
2012
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.8M–$42.6M after Steam's cut $28.8M–$65.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAction RPG
Grim Dawn
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$31.4M–$84.5M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
Action RPGHack and Slash
Wolcen: Lords of Mayhem
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
68k reviews
Mixed
Action RPGHack and Slash

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