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How many copies did Flyout sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 57k–93k
$313k–$842k after Steam's cut $569k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Flyout and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Flyout's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–2.7M
best case 27.0M (BeamNG.drive)
Games like Flyout

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–2.7M copies

≈ $14.6M–$19.2M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.5M–33.4M copies, ≈ $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31k reviews in their first month; the range was 11k to 32k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (5 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Driving + Realistic + Automobile Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
7.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Trailmakers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceAction
Transport Fever 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 950k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$28.1M after Steam's cut $19.0M–$43.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationStrategy
Stormworks: Build and Rescue
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxBase-Building
The Crew™ 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.0M–$67.2M after Steam's cut $45.5M–$103.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
100k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingOpen World
Brick Rigs
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.2M–$22.0M after Steam's cut $14.8M–$33.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxDestruction
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
DCS World Steam Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFlight

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