How much revenue did Swarmlake make?

$81k–$218k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Swarmlake sell?

Q: How many copies did Swarmlake sell?

59k to 96k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 59k–96k; $81k–$218k after Steam's cut $147k–$335k before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Swarmlake and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Swarmlake's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–1.3M

best case 8.0M (ULTRAKILL)

Games like Swarmlake

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–1.3M copies

≈ $4.8M–$7.1M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ULTRAKILL at ≈ 6.1M–9.9M copies, ≈ $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 29k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 33k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Arena Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Fast-Paced + FPS, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Fast-Paced + Boomer Shooter + Blood; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2004 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Quake Champions 2022	Est. copies ≈ 972k–1.6M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	39k reviews Mostly Positive	Arena ShooterHero Shooter
ULTRAKILL 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.1M–9.9M 15x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut $91.2M–$207.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	245k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Boomer ShooterFast-Paced
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch 2004	Est. copies ≈ 972k–1.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	15k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS
BATTALION: Legacy 2019	Est. copies ≈ 469k–763k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	16k reviews Mixed	FPSArena Shooter
Quake 2007	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic
Quake Live 2014	Est. copies ≈ 890k–1.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	FPSArena Shooter
Splitgate 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M 6.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	110k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayFPS
Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024	Est. copies ≈ 829k–1.3M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.8M–$18.4M after Steam's cut $12.4M–$28.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	33k reviews Mostly Positive	Online Co-OpAction