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How many copies did Changed sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 565k–919k
$776k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
from 19k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Changed and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Changed's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.7M–15.5M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Changed

A typical game among these

≈ 4.7M–15.5M copies

≈ $9.1M–$85.4M after Steam's cut

from ~156k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 144k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (4 of 8) and Music (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
122k reviews
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MusicRhythm
Helltaker
2020
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≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
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128k reviews
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Free to PlayCute
Bloons TD 6
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.6M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut
$13.99
396k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Fall Guys
2020
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.9M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
468k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerParty Game
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$52.3M–$140.6M after Steam's cut $95.1M–$216.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
156k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
DJMAX RESPECT V
2020
Est. copies
≈ 867k–1.4M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
35k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic

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