How much revenue did Shenmue III make?

$291k–$783k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Shenmue III sell?

Q: How many copies did Shenmue III sell?

35k to 57k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 35k–57k; $291k–$783k after Steam's cut $529k–$1.2M before Steam's cut; from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shenmue III and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shenmue III's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 532k–1.6M

best case 5.9M (Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition)

Games like Shenmue III

A typical game among these

≈ 532k–1.6M copies

≈ $5.1M–$18.5M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition at ≈ 4.5M–7.3M copies, ≈ $24.6M–$66.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 17k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Martial Arts (8 of 8) and Open World (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Martial Arts, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Sleeping Dogs unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 428k–696k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	17k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
觅长生 2023	Est. copies ≈ 797k–1.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	32k reviews Very Positive	RPGOpen World
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.3M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.6M–$66.2M after Steam's cut $44.7M–$101.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	80k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Sword and Fairy 7 2021	Est. copies ≈ 477k–775k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.6M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	19k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGSingleplayer
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon) 2018	Est. copies ≈ 338k–548k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut	$17.99	11k reviews Very Positive	RPGMartial Arts
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	49k reviews Very Positive	RPGStory Rich
Wandering Sword 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	46k reviews Very Positive	RPGMartial Arts
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII 2020	Est. copies ≈ 238k–386k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.5M before Steam's cut	$34.99	10k reviews Mixed	RPGMartial Arts