How much revenue did Mystic Vale make?

$48k–$130k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mystic Vale sell?

Q: How many copies did Mystic Vale sell?

14k to 22k copies, based on its 469 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 14k–22k; $48k–$130k after Steam's cut $88k–$200k before Steam's cut; from 469 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mystic Vale and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mystic Vale's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–5.3M

best case 8.3M (Slay the Spire)

Games like Mystic Vale

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–5.3M copies

≈ $17.1M–$37.8M after Steam's cut

from ~78k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.3M copies, ≈ $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 15k reviews in their first month; the range was 8k to 21k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Card Game (5 of 8) and Deckbuilding (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Roguelike Deckbuilder + Card Game, priced around $25.
When they shipped: Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Minion Masters 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	65k reviews Very Positive	PvETrading Card Game
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KARDS - The WW2 Card Game 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	52k reviews Mixed	Free to PlayCard Game
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