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How many copies did Loop Hero sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 907k–1.5M
$3.7M–$10.1M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut
from 37k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Loop Hero and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Loop Hero's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 432k–814k
best case 6.5M (FTL: Faster Than Light)
Games like Loop Hero

A typical game among these

≈ 432k–814k copies

≈ $2.7M–$5.0M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Rogue-like (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: FTL: Faster Than Light at ≈ 5.0M–8.1M copies, ≈ $13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 9k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (4 of 8) and Turn-Based (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-like + Space, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Space + Perma Death + Difficult; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Steam Link
2015
Est. copies
≈ 360k–584k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Free
Free
7k reviews
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Steam MachineSoftware
The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 341k–555k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer
FTL: Faster Than Light
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
79k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSpace
Garfield Kart
2015
Est. copies
≈ 691k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Into the Breach
2018
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Caves of Qud
2024
Est. copies
≈ 316k–514k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Procedural GenerationTurn-Based Combat
Dome Keeper
2022
Est. copies
≈ 558k–906k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$17.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerPost-apocalyptic
Backpack Hero
2023
Est. copies
≈ 212k–344k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Replay ValueTurn-Based

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