How much revenue did Frozen Synapse make?

$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Frozen Synapse sell?

Q: How many copies did Frozen Synapse sell?

165k to 269k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 165k–269k; $1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Frozen Synapse and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Frozen Synapse's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.0M–18.3M

best case 27.3M (The Forest)

Games like Frozen Synapse

A typical game among these

≈ 5.0M–18.3M copies

≈ $69.9M–$206.7M after Steam's cut

from ~116k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (5 of 8) and Grand Strategy (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2010 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M 5.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Dota Underlords 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	91k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayStrategy
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $68.9M–$185.3M after Steam's cut $125.3M–$285.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	121k reviews Very Positive	StrategyFantasy
XCOM® 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	110k reviews Very Positive	IsometricTurn-Based Combat
Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010	Est. copies ≈ 13.3M–21.7M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut $199.9M–$454.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	211k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Turn-Based StrategyStrategy
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.7M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	380k reviews Very Positive	StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	88k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $29.7M–$79.9M after Steam's cut $54.0M–$123.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	94k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical