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How many copies did Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 46k–74k
$250k–$673k after Steam's cut $455k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–2.0M
best case 4.5M (House Flipper)
Games like Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–2.0M copies

≈ $13.0M–$19.1M after Steam's cut

from ~46k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: House Flipper at ≈ 3.4M–5.5M copies, ≈ $23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 608 to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (6 of 8) and Simulation (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Design & Illustration, priced around $25.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Police Simulator: Patrol Officers
2022
Est. copies
≈ 574k–933k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
23k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationCrime
Stormworks: Build and Rescue
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxBase-Building
PC Building Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationEducation
MX Bikes
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$27.9M after Steam's cut $18.8M–$42.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
MotocrossMotorbike
House Flipper
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$96.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
112k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationDesign & Illustration
Model Builder: Complete Edition
2022
Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$174k–$469k after Steam's cut $317k–$721k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
Immersive SimSandbox
Car Mechanic Simulator 2021
2021
Est. copies
≈ 963k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.6M–$17.8M after Steam's cut $12.0M–$27.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationAutomobile Sim
Biker Garage: Mechanic Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 15k–24k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$103k–$276k after Steam's cut $186k–$424k before Steam's cut
$24.99
518 reviews
Mixed
RacingMotorbike

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