How much revenue did Smelter make?

$29k–$78k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Smelter sell?

Q: How many copies did Smelter sell?

5k to 9k copies, based on its 213 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 5k–9k; $29k–$78k after Steam's cut $53k–$120k before Steam's cut; from 213 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Smelter and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Smelter's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 27k–120k

best case 2.6M (Rain World)

Games like Smelter

A typical game among these

≈ 27k–120k copies

≈ $154k–$275k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Rain World at ≈ 2.0M–3.2M copies, ≈ $13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 312 reviews in their first month; the range was 192 to 3k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share 2D Platformer (5 of 8) and Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Exploration, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Atmospheric + Survival + Pixel Graphics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Rain World 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M 53x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	58k reviews Very Positive	DifficultAtmospheric
Left on Read 2020	Est. copies ≈ 130k–211k 4.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	5k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayRomance
F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch 2021	Est. copies ≈ 181k–293k 6.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $794k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut	$15.99	7k reviews Very Positive	Metroidvania Platformer
JellyCar Worlds 2022	Est. copies ≈ 27k–44k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $59k–$159k after Steam's cut $108k–$245k before Steam's cut	$7.99	1k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Racing2D Platformer
Stilt Fella 2020	Est. copies ≈ 22k–36k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $78k–$211k after Steam's cut $143k–$324k before Steam's cut	$12.99	885 reviews Very Positive	PhysicsDifficult
BIOMORPH 2024	Est. copies ≈ 18k–29k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $98k–$263k after Steam's cut $178k–$404k before Steam's cut	$19.99	717 reviews Very Positive	Metroidvania Platformer
Mosa Lina 2023	Est. copies ≈ 53k–86k 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $117k–$313k after Steam's cut $212k–$482k before Steam's cut	$7.99	2k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Co-opMultiplayer
Actraiser Renaissance 2021	Est. copies ≈ 19k–32k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $160k–$430k after Steam's cut $291k–$662k before Steam's cut	$29.99	782 reviews Mostly Positive	ActionAction RPG