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How many copies did Neon Tail sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$16k–$44k after Steam's cut $30k–$68k before Steam's cut
from 96 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Neon Tail and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Neon Tail's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 58k–143k
best case 206k (GRIP: Combat Racing)
Games like Neon Tail

A typical game among these

≈ 58k–143k copies

≈ $349k–$1.2M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: GRIP: Combat Racing at ≈ 157k–255k copies, ≈ $1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 146 reviews in their first month; the range was 14 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (6 of 8) and Combat Racing (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Automobile Sim, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.3x vs typical
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too small to compare
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