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How many copies did Metal Heads sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$17k before Steam's cut
from 42 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Metal Heads and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Metal Heads's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 741–2.5M
best case 29.9M (Among Us)
Games like Metal Heads

A typical game among these

≈ 741–2.5M copies

≈ $4k–$14.3M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Among Us at ≈ 22.8M–37.0M copies, ≈ $31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 13.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Party Game (5 of 8) and 4 Player Local (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Social Deduction + Space, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Mini Matches
2022
Est. copies
≈ 620–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
$14.99
25 reviews
Positive
MultiplayerFunny
12 orbits
2016
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$28k before Steam's cut
$1.99
293 reviews
Very Positive
Local MultiplayerParty Game
Among Us
2018
Est. copies
≈ 22.8M–37.0M
79x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
749k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerSocial Deduction
Drunken Wrestlers 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 541k–879k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$594k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$3.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessMultiplayer
SMYS : Show Me Your Stairs
2024
Est. copies
≈ 397–645
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$11.99
16 reviews
Positive
Party GameLocal Multiplayer
Pummel Party
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
6.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$7.3M–$19.6M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$30.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerFunny
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
5.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
54k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerParty
Cubiti pARti
2022
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$34–$91 after Steam's cut $62–$140 before Steam's cut
$4.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
SportsParty Game

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