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How many copies did hallucination - 幻觉 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before Steam's cut
from 204 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid hallucination - 幻觉 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including hallucination - 幻觉's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 878k–1.5M
best case 2.1M (VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action)
Games like hallucination - 幻觉

A typical game among these

≈ 878k–1.5M copies

≈ $6.9M–$15.4M after Steam's cut

from ~25k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action at ≈ 1.6M–2.6M copies, ≈ $6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 973 reviews in their first month; the range was 32 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (7 of 8) and Story Rich (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Visual Novel, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

STEINS;GATE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$9.3M–$25.1M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NEKOPARA Vol. 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 535k–870k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeSexual Content
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CyberpunkVisual Novel
ATRI -My Dear Moments-
2020
Est. copies
≈ 584k–949k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut
$20.99
24k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
Senren*Banka
2020
Est. copies
≈ 923k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.9M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
37k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
The Frosts: First Ones
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$2.99
57 reviews
Very Positive
Story RichPoint & Click
Last Days
2021
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
$3.99
198 reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelWord Game
FINAL FANTASY® XIII
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.4M before Steam's cut
$15.99
20k reviews
Mostly Positive
JRPGRPG

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