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How many copies did The Frosts: First Ones sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 57 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Frosts: First Ones and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Frosts: First Ones's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 322k–1.8M
best case 5.0M (Disco Elysium - The Final Cut)
Games like The Frosts: First Ones

A typical game among these

≈ 322k–1.8M copies

≈ $1.7M–$8.4M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Disco Elysium - The Final Cut at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Point & Click (8 of 8) and Story Rich (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Wolf Among Us
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.2M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
40k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureDetective
Deponia
2012
Est. copies
≈ 930k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePoint & Click
Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series
2017
Est. copies
≈ 369k–600k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureStory Rich
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive
Kathy Rain
2016
Est. copies
≈ 167k–271k
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$458k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $833k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickAdventure
Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth
2017
Est. copies
≈ 262k–425k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterAdventure
Tangle Tower
2019
Est. copies
≈ 196k–319k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectivePoint & Click
No Case Should Remain Unsolved
2024
Est. copies
≈ 266k–433k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$512k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $930k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$6.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Interactive FictionPuzzle

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