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How many copies did AColony sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–6k
$19k–$52k after Steam's cut $35k–$80k before Steam's cut
from 141 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid AColony and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including AColony's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–5.5M
best case 9.9M (RimWorld)
Games like AColony

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–5.5M copies

≈ $11.4M–$58.1M after Steam's cut

from ~42k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.6M–12.3M copies, ≈ $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Colony Sim (8 of 8) and Survival (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Colony Sim + Base-Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

They Are Billions
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
52k reviews
Very Positive
Base-BuildingColony Sim
Dwarf Fortress
2022
Est. copies
≈ 783k–1.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.4M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Frostpunk
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut $62.8M–$142.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
138k reviews
Very Positive
Kingdoms and Castles
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
Surviving Mars
2018
Est. copies
≈ 889k–1.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Mostly Positive
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Amazing Cultivation Simulator
2020
Est. copies
≈ 586k–952k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.8M after Steam's cut $7.3M–$16.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationMartial Arts

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.