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How many copies did Marco & The Galaxy Dragon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 196k–319k
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Marco & The Galaxy Dragon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Marco & The Galaxy Dragon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.9M–4.9M
best case 10.3M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like Marco & The Galaxy Dragon

A typical game among these

≈ 1.9M–4.9M copies

≈ $8.6M–$17.9M after Steam's cut

from ~59k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.9M–12.8M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (6 of 8) and Visual Novel (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Volcano Princess
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut
$10.99
49k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Life SimMultiple Endings
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CyberpunkVisual Novel
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelHistorical
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.5M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveVisual Novel
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
Everlasting Summer
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive
Persona 5 Royal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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