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How many copies did American Arcadia sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 106k–173k
$584k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid American Arcadia and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including American Arcadia's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 22.6M–68.5M
best case 78.3M (Euro Truck Simulator 2)
Games like American Arcadia

A typical game among these

≈ 22.6M–68.5M copies

≈ $223.9M–$432.7M after Steam's cut

from ~604k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Euro Truck Simulator 2 at ≈ 59.7M–97.0M copies, ≈ $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 200k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (6 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Driving + Transportation, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 20M–50M
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BeamNG.drive
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Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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SimulationDriving
Euro Truck Simulator 2
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Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
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Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord
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MedievalStrategy
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too small to compare
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too small to compare
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≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
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$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
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AVATARIKA
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≈ 7k–12k
too small to compare
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Free to PlaySexual Content

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