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How many copies did Hyperbolica sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 33k–53k
$117k–$315k after Steam's cut $213k–$485k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hyperbolica and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hyperbolica's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 566k–1.3M
best case 3.8M (The Stanley Parable)
Games like Hyperbolica

A typical game among these

≈ 566k–1.3M copies

≈ $4.0M–$16.6M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Stanley Parable at ≈ 2.9M–4.7M copies, ≈ $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (8 of 8) and Puzzle (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Comedy + Narration, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Antichamber
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
18k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleFirst-Person
The Witness
2016
Est. copies
≈ 900k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$40.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleExploration
The Exit 8
2023
Est. copies
≈ 289k–470k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$317k–$853k after Steam's cut $577k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$3.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Viewfinder
2023
Est. copies
≈ 330k–536k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle
Superliminal
2020
Est. copies
≈ 848k–1.4M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleFirst-Person
The Stanley Parable
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyNarration
Jazzpunk: Director's Cut
2014
Est. copies
≈ 465k–756k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyIndie
Ghostwire: Tokyo
2022
Est. copies
≈ 526k–855k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.9M before Steam's cut
$59.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerSupernatural

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