How much revenue did Messticulous make?

$545–$1k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Messticulous sell?

Q: How many copies did Messticulous sell?

496 to 806 copies, based on its 20 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 496–806; $545–$1k after Steam's cut $990–$2k before Steam's cut; from 20 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Messticulous and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Messticulous's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 377k–815k

best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)

Games like Messticulous

A typical game among these

≈ 377k–815k copies

≈ $2.4M–$5.4M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Puzzle (6 of 8) and Comedy (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Puzzle + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Puzzle-Platformer + Sandbox + 3D Platformer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2007 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Surgeon Simulator 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	17k reviews Very Positive	SimulationFunny
Gravitas 2019	Est. copies ≈ 206k–334k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	7k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Free to PlayPuzzle
Untitled Goose Game 2020	Est. copies ≈ 627k–1.0M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	25k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FunnyVillain Protagonist
Donut County 2018	Est. copies ≈ 370k–601k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut	$12.99	12k reviews Very Positive	CasualIndie
Human Fall Flat 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.5M–15.4M 20x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	227k reviews Very Positive	Co-opFunny
Portal 2007	Est. copies ≈ 12.6M–20.5M 17x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	199k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Bridge Constructor Portal 2017	Est. copies ≈ 259k–421k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $712k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle Simulation
Octodad: Dadliest Catch 2014	Est. copies ≈ 601k–976k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	11k reviews Very Positive	ComedyPhysics