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How many copies did Tin Can sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 34k–55k
$186k–$499k after Steam's cut $337k–$767k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tin Can and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tin Can's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–7.4M
best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)
Games like Tin Can

A typical game among these

≈ 4.3M–7.4M copies

≈ $23.7M–$79.3M after Steam's cut

from ~137k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (6 of 8) and Building (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxBase-Building
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
FTL: Faster Than Light
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
79k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSpace
Empyrion - Galactic Survival
2020
Est. copies
≈ 854k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Mostly Positive
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox
ASTRONEER
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
139k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.