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How many copies did Unreal Gold sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 163k–264k
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Unreal Gold and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Unreal Gold's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.0M–4.0M
best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)
Games like Unreal Gold

A typical game among these

≈ 3.0M–4.0M copies

≈ $17.4M after Steam's cut

from ~41k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Sci-fi (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 1998 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.7M–28.8M
6.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Half-Life
1998
Est. copies
≈ 10.4M–16.9M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
164k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
STAR WARS™ Battlefront II (Classic, 2005)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.4M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$39.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Very Positive
ActionMultiplayer
Half-Life 2: Episode Two
2007
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Black Mesa
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
145k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRemake
Half-Life 2: Episode One
2006
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
31k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
2019
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
6.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$83.3M–$223.9M after Steam's cut $151.4M–$344.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
263k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackFPS

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