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How many copies did Potion Permit sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 136k–220k
$745k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Potion Permit and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Potion Permit's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 534k–1.8M
best case 4.6M (Persona 5 Royal)
Games like Potion Permit

A typical game among these

≈ 534k–1.8M copies

≈ $6.7M–$26.1M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Persona 5 Royal at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 795 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (8 of 8) and JRPG (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with JRPG + Story Rich, priced around $60.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Persona 5 Royal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
6.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Persona 4 Golden
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
JRPGGreat Soundtrack
Persona® 5 Strikers
2021
Est. copies
≈ 455k–740k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.7M–$31.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeHack and Slash
Metaphor: ReFantazio
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$20.7M–$55.7M after Steam's cut $37.7M–$85.7M before Steam's cut
$69.99
43k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG
Eastward
2021
Est. copies
≈ 412k–670k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsStory Rich
DRAGON QUEST® XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Definitive Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 302k–490k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.9M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGTurn-Based Combat
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
2024
Est. copies
≈ 599k–973k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$11.5M–$31.0M after Steam's cut $20.9M–$47.7M before Steam's cut
$69.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
ActionJRPG
Sea of Stars: Sunset Edition
2023
Est. copies
≈ 390k–634k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.1M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut
$34.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsJRPG

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