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How many copies did Open Hexagon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $31k–$69k before Steam's cut
from 493 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Open Hexagon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Open Hexagon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 648k–1.2M
best case 2.1M (Super Hexagon)
Games like Open Hexagon

A typical game among these

≈ 648k–1.2M copies

≈ $2.2M–$5.6M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Super Hexagon at ≈ 1.6M–2.6M copies, ≈ $1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 447 reviews in their first month; the range was 35 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rhythm (8 of 8) and Arcade (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fast-Paced + Arcade, priced around $3.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+
2022
Est. copies
≈ 590k–959k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.2M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.5M before Steam's cut
$39.39
24k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmAnime
Melatonin
2022
Est. copies
≈ 203k–330k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$838k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmIndie
Super Hexagon
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$2.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultGreat Soundtrack
One More Line
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$12k–$32k after Steam's cut $21k–$48k before Steam's cut
$2.99
292 reviews
Mostly Positive
RhythmFast-Paced
AudioSurf
2008
Est. copies
≈ 702k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$8.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MusicRhythm
Double Kick Heroes
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$37k–$101k after Steam's cut $68k–$155k before Steam's cut
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275 reviews
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RhythmZombies
The Polynomial - Space of the music
2010
Est. copies
≈ 32k–51k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$61k–$163k after Steam's cut $110k–$251k before Steam's cut
$6.99
500 reviews
Mostly Positive
IndieMusic
LOUD: My Road to Fame
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut
$9.99
193 reviews
Very Positive
RhythmArcade

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