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How many copies did Super Hexagon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
from 25k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Super Hexagon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Super Hexagon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 13.4M–29.7M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Super Hexagon

A typical game among these

≈ 13.4M–29.7M copies

≈ $93.2M–$138.8M after Steam's cut

from ~460k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Action Roguelike (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 103k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 144k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (3 of 8) and Rogue-like (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Mature + Utilities + Anime; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fall Guys
2020
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.9M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free		 Free
468k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerParty Game
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut		 $24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut		 $4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Bloons TD 6
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut		 $13.99
396k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut		 $4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut		 $14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Hades
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.7M–12.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut		 $24.99
310k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut		 $14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaSouls-like

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.