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How many copies did Blade Assault sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 57k–93k
$282k–$757k after Steam's cut $512k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Blade Assault and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blade Assault's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.7M–7.7M
best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Blade Assault

A typical game among these

≈ 3.7M–7.7M copies

≈ $19.5M–$55.9M after Steam's cut

from ~127k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 30k reviews in their first month; the range was 15k to 129k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Rogue-like (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
184k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Skul: The Hero Slayer
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
IndieAction
Realm of the Mad God Exalt
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
48k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsMMORPG
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
Noita
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PhysicsRogue-like
Enter the Gungeon
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.4M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
90k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bullet HellAction Roguelike

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