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How many copies did MechNest sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MechNest and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MechNest's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11k–16k
best case 11.5M (Risk of Rain 2)
Games like MechNest

A typical game among these

≈ 11k–16k copies

≈ $31k–$65k after Steam's cut

from ~432 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Risk of Rain 2 at ≈ 8.8M–14.2M copies, ≈ $60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 339 reviews in their first month; the range was 137 to 103k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Rogue-lite (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Rogue-like + Multiplayer + Co-op; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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72x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Desert Of The Dead
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ShooterAction
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Black Gunner Wukong
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≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy under 20k
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Shoot 'Em UpAction Roguelike
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
818x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
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Returnal™
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Est. copies
≈ 276k–448k
26x vs typical
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ActionBullet Hell
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Est. copies
≈ 5k–9k
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$13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut
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Est. copies
≈ 9k–14k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$35k–$95k after Steam's cut $64k–$146k before Steam's cut
$14.99
345 reviews
Mostly Positive
Rogue-liteAction Roguelike

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.