How much revenue did GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- make?

$18.3M–$49.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- sell?

Q: How many copies did GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- sell?

1.7M to 2.7M copies, based on its 67k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.7M–2.7M; $18.3M–$49.1M after Steam's cut $33.2M–$75.6M before Steam's cut; from 67k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE-'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–4.3M

best case 5.7M (Stick Fight: The Game)

Games like GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE-

A typical game among these

≈ 2.5M–4.3M copies

≈ $27.6M–$67.8M after Steam's cut

from ~78k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stick Fight: The Game at ≈ 4.3M–7.0M copies, ≈ $5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Fighting (8 of 8) and 2D Fighter (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Fighting + 2D Fighter, priced around $5.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Stick Fight: The Game 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–7.0M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	125k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerFunny
Street Fighter™ 6 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	80k reviews Very Positive	2D FighterFighting
TEKKEN 7 2017	Est. copies ≈ 3.3M–5.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $36.2M–$97.2M after Steam's cut $65.7M–$149.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	96k reviews Very Positive	FightingAction
TEKKEN 8 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $19.8M–$53.4M after Steam's cut $36.1M–$82.1M before Steam's cut	$39.99	73k reviews Mixed	Fighting3D Fighter
DRAGON BALL FighterZ 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $38.6M–$103.7M after Steam's cut $70.1M–$159.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	77k reviews Very Positive	FightingAnime
Mortal Kombat X 2015	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $16.3M–$43.9M after Steam's cut $29.7M–$67.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	61k reviews Very Positive	FightingGore
Mortal Kombat 11 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut	$49.99	116k reviews Very Positive	FightingGore
Rivals of Aether 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.8M–$29.2M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	38k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Fighting2D Fighter