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How many copies did STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 41k–66k
$449k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $817k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–1.6M
best case 57.1M (Stardew Valley)
Games like STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–1.6M copies

≈ $11.7M–$14.5M after Steam's cut

from ~41k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stardew Valley at ≈ 43.5M–70.7M copies, ≈ $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 43k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (5 of 8) and Crafting (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Farming Sim + Life Sim, priced around $17. The breakout hits carry Relaxing + Pixel Graphics + RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.5M–70.7M
26x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 934k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
My Time at Portia
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.3M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Life SimRPG
Forager
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
CraftingSingleplayer
My Time at Sandrock
2023
Est. copies
≈ 722k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.3M after Steam's cut $14.4M–$32.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Life SimBuilding
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya
2021
Est. copies
≈ 815k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
$5.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual

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