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How many copies did Prodigal sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16k–25k
$64k–$172k after Steam's cut $116k–$264k before the cut
from 625 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Prodigal out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Prodigal's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–1.7M
best case 6.6M (STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™)
Games like Prodigal

The middle of these games

≈ 1.4M–1.7M copies

≈ $21.1M–$30.4M after Steam's cut

from ~39k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ at ≈ 5.0M–8.2M copies, ≈ $55.5M–$149.2M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 18k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Puzzle (5 of 8) and Action-Adventure (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third Person + Open World, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Open World + Third Person; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$53.4M–$143.5M after Steam's cut $97.1M–$220.8M before the cut
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UNCHARTED™: Legacy of Thieves Collection
2022
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Chants of Sennaar
2023
Est. copies
≈ 854k–1.4M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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PuzzleAdventure
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2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.5M–$79.2M after Steam's cut $53.6M–$121.9M before the cut
$39.99
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Atomic Heart
2023
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≈ 1.3M–2.1M
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Sexual ContentFPS
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.2M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.5M–$149.2M after Steam's cut $100.9M–$229.5M before the cut
$39.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
Mirror's Edge™
2009
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.5M before the cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureParkour
We Were Here
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
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Very Positive
Free to PlayCo-op

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