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How many copies did At Eve’s Wake Definitive Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
from 45 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid At Eve’s Wake Definitive Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including At Eve’s Wake Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–2.3M
best case 10.3M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like At Eve’s Wake Definitive Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 1.7M–2.3M copies

≈ $8.6M–$16.9M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.9M–12.8M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 163 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (6 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Dating Sim + Cute; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Everlasting Summer
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeVisual Novel
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
Library Of Ruina
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichCard Game
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelHistorical
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk
2020
Est. copies
≈ 853k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$349k–$939k after Steam's cut $635k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$1.49
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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