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How many copies did Moondrop sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 843–1k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 34 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Moondrop and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Moondrop's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 521–2k
best case 60k (Gnomes)
Games like Moondrop

A typical game among these

≈ 521–2k copies

≈ $986–$7k after Steam's cut

from ~22 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Gnomes at ≈ 46k–74k copies, ≈ $126k–$338k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21 reviews in their first month; the range was 6 to 649.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Farming Sim (7 of 8) and Rogue-lite (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + Turn-Based, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based + Dwarf + Tower Defense; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Tower DefenseStrategy

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