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How many copies did Gnomes sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 46k–74k
$126k–$338k after Steam's cut $229k–$520k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gnomes and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gnomes's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 19k–121k
best case 448k (The Last Spell)
Games like Gnomes

A typical game among these

≈ 19k–121k copies

≈ $104k–$726k after Steam's cut

from ~793 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Last Spell at ≈ 341k–555k copies, ≈ $2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 349 reviews in their first month; the range was 19 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (5 of 8) and Deckbuilding (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $25.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.