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How many copies did Adarin Farm sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 298–484
$491–$1k after Steam's cut $893–$2k before Steam's cut
from 12 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Adarin Farm and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Adarin Farm's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 618–9k
best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Adarin Farm

A typical game among these

≈ 618–9k copies

≈ $1k–$15k after Steam's cut

from ~46 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 649 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Farming Sim (7 of 8) and Procedural Generation (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Action Roguelike + Indie + Replay Value; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
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AdventureFarming Sim

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.