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How many copies did Neko Nyaa~ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 496–806
$272–$730 after Steam's cut $494–$1k before Steam's cut
from 20 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Neko Nyaa~ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Neko Nyaa~'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–8.4M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Neko Nyaa~

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–8.4M copies

≈ $26.9M–$55.0M after Steam's cut

from ~115k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (6 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SteamVR
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
VRSoftware
Freddy Fazbear's Pizzeria Simulator
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
33k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayHorror
Hand Simulator
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$2.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFunny
MiSide
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut $26.5M–$60.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
143k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
The Talos Principle
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePhilosophical
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
8.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.