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How many copies did Splash Cars sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 496–806
$681–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 20 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Splash Cars and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Splash Cars's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–4k
best case 134k (Neon Echo)
Games like Splash Cars

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–4k copies

≈ $12k–$29k after Steam's cut

from ~80 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Neon Echo at ≈ 102k–166k copies, ≈ $420k–$1.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 2k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (7 of 8) and Action Roguelike (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-lite + Action Roguelike, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Rogue-lite + Rogue-like + Cartoony; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.