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How many copies did METALLIC CHILD sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 31k–50k
$211k–$568k after Steam's cut $384k–$873k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid METALLIC CHILD and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including METALLIC CHILD's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 957k–4.0M
best case 4.2M (Cult of the Lamb)
Games like METALLIC CHILD

A typical game among these

≈ 957k–4.0M copies

≈ $7.2M–$21.5M after Steam's cut

from ~49k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cult of the Lamb at ≈ 3.2M–5.2M copies, ≈ $22.2M–$59.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 42k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Rogue-like (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Base-Building + Action Roguelike, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Skul: The Hero Slayer
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
IndieAction
Moonlighter
2018
Est. copies
≈ 747k–1.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Hack and SlashPixel Graphics
Spelunky 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 545k–886k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
Platformer2D Platformer
Cult of the Lamb
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.6M after Steam's cut $40.3M–$91.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
130k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingCute
PlateUp!
2022
Est. copies
≈ 675k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
Brotato
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
119k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Enter the Gungeon
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.4M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
90k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bullet HellAction Roguelike
HoloCure - Save the Fans!
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsBullet Hell

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.