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How many copies did Love n War: Warlord by Chance sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 34k–55k
$46k–$124k after Steam's cut $84k–$191k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Love n War: Warlord by Chance and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Love n War: Warlord by Chance's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.6M–5.3M
best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)
Games like Love n War: Warlord by Chance

A typical game among these

≈ 3.6M–5.3M copies

≈ $77.0M–$108.4M after Steam's cut

from ~110k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Character Customization (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Character Customization (3 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $37. The breakout hits carry Choices Matter + Story Rich + Turn-Based Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
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Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
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MultiplayerPhysics
Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.3M–34.6M
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
859k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
Crusader Kings III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
143k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMedieval
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2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.6M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut
$13.99
396k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
World of Warships
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free to PlayNaval Combat
Planet Zoo
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.9M–$93.8M after Steam's cut $63.4M–$144.3M before Steam's cut
$44.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
Total War: WARHAMMER II
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$68.9M–$185.3M after Steam's cut $125.3M–$285.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
121k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyFantasy
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2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
91k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStrategy

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