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How many copies did AI Dungeon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 20k–32k
from 803 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid AI Dungeon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including AI Dungeon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 553–847
best case 23k (BIOMORPH)
Games like AI Dungeon

A typical game among these

≈ 553–847 copies

≈ $1k–$2k after Steam's cut

from ~20 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Artificial Intelligence (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: BIOMORPH at ≈ 18k–29k copies, ≈ $98k–$263k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 261.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Artificial Intelligence (4 of 8) and Action-Adventure (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Text-Based + Choose Your Own Adventure, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Adventure + Puzzle + Exploration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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