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How many copies did Otherwar sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before Steam's cut
from 123 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Otherwar and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Otherwar's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 970k–1.3M
best case 7.7M (Factorio)
Games like Otherwar

A typical game among these

≈ 970k–1.3M copies

≈ $4.2M–$6.2M after Steam's cut

from ~23k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.9M–9.5M copies, ≈ $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Base-Building (4 of 8) and Building (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Crafting + Survival + Automation; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Forts
2017
Est. copies
≈ 876k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$14.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Base-BuildingMultiplayer
Garfield Kart
2015
Est. copies
≈ 691k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Mindustry
2019
Est. copies
≈ 813k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
28k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingResource Management
Dungeon of the ENDLESS™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 787k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$11.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy
Kingdom: Classic
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
23k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStrategy
Kingdoms and Castles
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 341k–555k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer

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