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How many copies did Golfie sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 10k–17k
$52k–$139k after Steam's cut $94k–$213k before Steam's cut
from 420 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Golfie and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Golfie's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 550k–749k
best case 8.3M (Slay the Spire)
Games like Golfie

A typical game among these

≈ 550k–749k copies

≈ $3.4M–$6.9M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.3M copies, ≈ $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Deckbuilding (7 of 8) and Rogue-like (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Game + Deckbuilding, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Card Game + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Balatro
2024
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut $37.2M–$84.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
200k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Peglin
2024
Est. copies
≈ 439k–714k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.5M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Inscryption
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
8.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.3M–$54.6M after Steam's cut $36.9M–$84.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Card BattlerCard Game
Monster Train
2020
Est. copies
≈ 570k–927k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Card BattlerRogue-lite
Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.3M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
220k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dicey Dungeons
2019
Est. copies
≈ 343k–558k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Roguelike DeckbuilderCard Battler
Magicraft
2024
Est. copies
≈ 419k–681k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$15.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Loop Hero
2021
Est. copies
≈ 907k–1.5M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.1M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
TacticalRogue-like

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.