How much revenue did Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice make?

$662k–$1.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice sell?

Q: How many copies did Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice sell?

120k to 196k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 120k–196k; $662k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut; from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 598k–1.1M

best case 2.1M (Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun)

Games like Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice

A typical game among these

≈ 598k–1.1M copies

≈ $8.0M–$9.6M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun at ≈ 1.6M–2.6M copies, ≈ $17.6M–$47.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 55 to 19k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Base-Building (4 of 8) and Real Time Tactics (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Stealth + Tactical, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $17.6M–$47.3M after Steam's cut $32.0M–$72.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	38k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StealthStrategy
Desperados III 2020	Est. copies ≈ 413k–671k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	17k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Real Time TacticsStrategy
Command & Conquer™ Remastered Collection 2020	Est. copies ≈ 870k–1.4M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.8M–$12.9M after Steam's cut $8.7M–$19.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	35k reviews Very Positive	StrategyRTS
Against the Storm 2023	Est. copies ≈ 934k–1.5M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	38k reviews Very Positive	StrategyCity Builder
Aliens: Dark Descent 2023	Est. copies ≈ 469k–763k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before Steam's cut	$39.99	19k reviews Very Positive	StrategyAction
Dungeons 3 2017	Est. copies ≈ 644k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	19k reviews Very Positive	StrategyVillain Protagonist
POLYGON 2020	Est. copies ≈ 918k–1.5M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	37k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayFPS
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	21k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MilitaryCity Builder