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How many copies did Metal Slug Tactics sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 39k–63k
$268k–$721k after Steam's cut $487k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Metal Slug Tactics and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Metal Slug Tactics's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 739k–1.3M
best case 27.3M (The Forest)
Games like Metal Slug Tactics

A typical game among these

≈ 739k–1.3M copies

≈ $7.1M–$15.8M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Character Customization (5 of 8) and Turn-Based Strategy (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Strategy, priced around $32. The breakout hits carry Exploration + Open World Survival Craft + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
206k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tactical RPGRPG
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
26x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$16.5M–$44.4M after Steam's cut $30.0M–$68.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
Character CustomizationCinematic
Wartales
2023
Est. copies
≈ 899k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$34.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Wasteland 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 557k–904k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGCharacter Customization
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
Wildermyth
2021
Est. copies
≈ 454k–737k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Party-Based RPGChoices Matter
XCOM®: Chimera Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 582k–947k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
23k reviews
Mostly Positive

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