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How many copies did Synth Retro Vapor Wave sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$439–$1k after Steam's cut $798–$2k before Steam's cut
from 65 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Synth Retro Vapor Wave and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Synth Retro Vapor Wave's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 124k–532k
best case 10.7M (Hotline Miami)
Games like Synth Retro Vapor Wave

A typical game among these

≈ 124k–532k copies

≈ $396k–$1.6M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hotline Miami at ≈ 8.1M–13.2M copies, ≈ $22.3M–$60.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 196 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 1980s (5 of 8) and Old School (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Violent + Top-Down, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 100k–200k
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Early AccessSimulation
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Est. copies
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3.2x vs typical
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3D PlatformerMetroidvania
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Very Positive
Old SchoolBoomer Shooter
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Est. copies
≈ 383k–622k
2.6x vs typical
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$315k–$846k after Steam's cut $572k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$2.99
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Overwhelmingly Positive
Racing1980s
Hotline Miami
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.2M
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$22.3M–$60.0M after Steam's cut $40.6M–$92.3M before Steam's cut
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Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackViolent
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Est. copies
≈ 58k–95k
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Horror1980s
Razortron 2000
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Est. revenue
$186k–$501k after Steam's cut $339k–$771k before Steam's cut
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CasualRacing
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Est. copies
≈ 99k–161k
SteamSpy under 20k
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$546k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $992k–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
3DAction

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