How much revenue did S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl make?

$57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl sell?

Q: How many copies did S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl sell?

3.5M to 5.7M copies, based on its 141k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3.5M–5.7M; $57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's cut $105.1M–$239.2M before Steam's cut; from 141k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17.3M–28.6M

best case 56.0M (Rust)

Games like S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl

A typical game among these

≈ 17.3M–28.6M copies

≈ $223.4M–$320.7M after Steam's cut

from ~450k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Rust at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (5 of 5) and Survival (4 of 5).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Crafting, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Crafting + Building + Sandbox; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 5 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
DayZ 2018	Est. copies ≈ 14.3M–23.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $196.4M–$527.9M after Steam's cut $357.0M–$812.2M before Steam's cut	$49.99	470k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalOpen World
Rust 2018	Est. copies ≈ 42.7M–69.3M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	1.4M reviews Very Positive	SurvivalCrafting
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 21.0M–34.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	429k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
7 Days to Die 2024	Est. copies ≈ 9.9M–16.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $123.1M–$331.0M after Steam's cut $223.8M–$509.2M before Steam's cut	$44.99	401k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalZombies
Dying Light 2015	Est. copies ≈ 24.2M–39.3M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	496k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesSurvival Horror