How much revenue did Asteroid Five make?

$571–$2k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Asteroid Five sell?

Q: How many copies did Asteroid Five sell?

347 to 564 copies, based on its 14 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 347–564; $571–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut; from 14 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Asteroid Five and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Asteroid Five's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 139k–206k

best case 3.5M (Outer Wilds)

Games like Asteroid Five

A typical game among these

≈ 139k–206k copies

≈ $1.1M–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Outer Wilds at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 721 to 5k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Space (7 of 8) and Exploration (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Space + Story Rich, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + Atmospheric + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Outer Wilds 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M 28x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	108k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ExplorationSpace
Exo One 2021	Est. copies ≈ 131k–213k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $612k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut	$16.99	5k reviews Very Positive	AtmosphericExploration
Tacoma 2017	Est. copies ≈ 166k–269k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $911k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	5k reviews Very Positive	Walking Simulator Story Rich
Deliver Us The Moon 2019	Est. copies ≈ 276k–448k 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	10k reviews Very Positive	AdventureIndie
Lifeless Planet Premier Edition 2014	Est. copies ≈ 204k–331k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $559k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Mostly Positive	AtmosphericSci-fi
Fort Solis 2023	Est. copies ≈ 105k–171k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $723k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	4k reviews Mixed	Walking SimulatorCinematic
Moons of Madness 2019	Est. copies ≈ 85k–138k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $582k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	3k reviews Mostly Positive	AdventureHorror
The Solus Project 2016	Est. copies ≈ 109k–178k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	3k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalAdventure