How much revenue did Tacoma make?

$911k–$2.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Tacoma sell?

Q: How many copies did Tacoma sell?

166k to 269k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 166k–269k; $911k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut; from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tacoma and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tacoma's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.6M–7.9M

best case 27.5M (Fallout 4)

Games like Tacoma

A typical game among these

≈ 5.6M–7.9M copies

≈ $42.2M–$131.5M after Steam's cut

from ~131k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 21.0M–34.1M copies, ≈ $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (3 of 8) and Dark Fantasy (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Open World + Singleplayer + Post-apocalyptic; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
GRIS 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	96k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	BeautifulAtmospheric
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 21.0M–34.1M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	429k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Life is Strange - Episode 1 2015	Est. copies ≈ 8.6M–14.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	176k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichChoices Matter
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.6M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	379k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin 2015	Est. copies ≈ 6.5M–10.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $71.3M–$191.8M after Steam's cut $129.7M–$295.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	133k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.8M–7.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $52.3M–$140.6M after Steam's cut $95.1M–$216.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	156k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Assassin's Creed® Origins 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $73.3M–$197.2M after Steam's cut $133.3M–$303.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	129k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAssassin
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	100k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric