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How many copies did The Heilwald Loophole sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$25k–$68k after Steam's cut $46k–$105k before Steam's cut
from 373 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Heilwald Loophole and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Heilwald Loophole's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–3.7M
best case 27.4M (Phasmophobia)
Games like The Heilwald Loophole

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–3.7M copies

≈ $7.2M–$22.7M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Phasmophobia at ≈ 20.9M–33.9M copies, ≈ $114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (8 of 8) and Horror (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Supernatural + VR + Online Co-Op; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Five Nights at Freddy's
2014
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.3M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSingleplayer
Layers of Fear (2016)
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.3M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.5M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
Outlast 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
Amnesia: The Dark Descent
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.4M–$33.4M after Steam's cut $22.6M–$51.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorGore
Five Nights at Freddy's 2
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.3M before Steam's cut
$7.99
26k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSingleplayer
Pacify
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$4.99
43k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Phasmophobia
2020
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–33.9M
20x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
842k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op

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