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How many copies did The Lone Blade sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before Steam's cut
from 42 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Lone Blade and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Lone Blade's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 117k–164k
best case 233k (Hot Lava)
Games like The Lone Blade

A typical game among these

≈ 117k–164k copies

≈ $783k–$1.0M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hot Lava at ≈ 178k–289k copies, ≈ $977k–$2.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 453 reviews in their first month; the range was 155 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (8 of 8) and Platformer (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + 3D Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Only Climb: Better Together
2023
Est. copies
≈ 86k–139k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$118k–$316k after Steam's cut $214k–$487k before Steam's cut
$4.99
3k reviews
Mixed
Precision Platformer3D Platformer
I Am Fish
2021
Est. copies
≈ 99k–161k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$544k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $989k–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureSimulation
Lunistice
2022
Est. copies
≈ 48k–78k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$66k–$178k after Steam's cut $120k–$274k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerFemale Protagonist
Blue Fire
2021
Est. copies
≈ 77k–126k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$425k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $772k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaExploration
Toree 3D
2021
Est. copies
≈ 42k–68k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$11k–$31k after Steam's cut $21k–$47k before Steam's cut
$0.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerPlatformer
SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell
2016
Est. copies
≈ 127k–207k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$525k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $955k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerParkour
*NEW* SCUFFED EPIC BHOP SIMULATOR 2023 (POG CHAMP)
2020
Est. copies
≈ 116k–189k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
CasualAction
Hot Lava
2019
Est. copies
≈ 178k–289k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$977k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Precision Platformer3D Platformer

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