How much revenue did Hot Lava make?

$977k–$2.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Hot Lava sell?

Q: How many copies did Hot Lava sell?

178k to 289k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 178k–289k; $977k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hot Lava and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hot Lava's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 98k–246k

best case 680k (Neon White)

Games like Hot Lava

A typical game among these

≈ 98k–246k copies

≈ $169k–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Neon White at ≈ 518k–842k copies, ≈ $3.6M–$9.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 148 to 4k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share 3D Platformer (7 of 8) and Parkour (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + 3D Platformer, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Neon White 2022	Est. copies ≈ 518k–842k 5.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $3.6M–$9.6M after Steam's cut $6.5M–$14.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	21k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPS3D Platformer
White Knuckle 2025	Est. copies ≈ 367k–597k 4.1x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut	$16.99	15k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Early AccessParkour
SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell 2016	Est. copies ≈ 127k–207k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $525k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $955k–$2.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Very Positive	3D PlatformerParkour
NEW SCUFFED EPIC BHOP SIMULATOR 2023 (POG CHAMP) 2020	Est. copies ≈ 116k–189k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue Free	Free	5k reviews Very Positive	CasualAction
BETON BRUTAL 2023	Est. copies ≈ 32k–52k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $62k–$166k after Steam's cut $112k–$256k before Steam's cut	$6.99	1k reviews Very Positive	3D PlatformerPrecision Platformer
Boson X 2014	Est. copies ≈ 89k–144k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $122k–$327k after Steam's cut $221k–$503k before Steam's cut	$4.99	2k reviews Very Positive	DifficultAction
Cyber Hook 2020	Est. copies ≈ 104k–169k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $429k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $780k–$1.8M before Steam's cut	$14.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Indie3D Platformer
PANZER BALL 2020	Est. copies ≈ 30k–49k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $41k–$111k after Steam's cut $75k–$170k before Steam's cut	$4.99	1k reviews Very Positive	IndieParkour